The most anticipated day of the ultra running season is almost here. Merry Statesmas, everyone!
Trying to handicap this race is almost impossible. The field is so deep every year, and the course is such a demanding test; you need to be able to survive the high country, but still have legs after Foresthill to throw down when the real racing starts. Couple that with the unpredictability of the weather and it makes picking the winner very difficult. But, everyone is giving it a shot, so I might as well do the same. My best crack at predicting the men's and women's races:
Ladies
Seven of last year's top 10 women are back this year, and they're found by a murderer's row of talent from the Golden Ticket races and elsewhere. Fourteen of last year's Gunksrunner Ultra Rankings top 50 are set to run; sixteen of the current 2016 top 50 are entered (including four of the top 5). I think the women's field is at least as deep as the men, which is not always the case. The only difference is the relative lack of top women from overseas, but I don't expect that to affect the quality of the race one bit.
1. Magdalena Boulet
Final 2015 GUR: 1
Current 2016 GUR:32
2015 WS finish: 1
Everything else aside, this is Magda's race to lose. The defending champion and the top marathoner in the field has both the mountain chops and the leg speed to meet any challenge. Her early season results have shown her to be on form. Anything can happen over 100 miles, but from where I sit, she's the overwhelming favorite.
2. Aliza Lapierre
Final 2015 GUR: 8
Current 2016 GUR:28
2015 WS finish: 4
She had a monster 2015, with top finishes at Bandera, TGC, States, and UTMF. She's had a bit of a quieter start to 2016, but a dominant win at Miwok shows she's ready to go.
3. Kaci Lickteig
Final 2015 GUR: 5
Current 2016 GUR:2
2015 WS finish: 2
The Pixie Ninja is clearly in top form following her second-place finish at Lake Sonoma and has placed in the top 5 at WS in both 2014 and 2015.
4. Devon Yanko
Final 2015 GUR: 84
Current 2016 GUR: 22
2015 WS finish: NA
She's more known for her prowess on the roads, but she's been running very well on both roads and trails since her return to the scene at Two Oceans last spring. States tends to look kindly on speedsters, and she's got one of the fastest marathon PRs in the field.
5. Caroline Boller
Final 2015 GUR: 27
Current 2016 GUR: 17
2015 WS finish: 8
After she crushed me--and the national master's record--at Caumsett in March, I'm looking for her to improve on last year's finish.
6. Alissa St. Laurent
Final 2015 GUR: 43
Current 2016 GUR: 79
2015 WS finish: NA
Flying a bit under the radar, but incredibly consistent across multiple distances.
7. Amy Sproston
Final 2015 GUR: 82
Current 2016 GUR: 31
2015 WS finish: NA
I like the road speed, I like the experience, and I like that she won Black Canyon to race her way in to WS. I feel like I might actually be selling her short here.
8. Janessa Taylor
Final 2015 GUR: 56
Current 2016 GUR: 36
2015 WS finish: NA
She's won almost everything she's entered the past two years, save a second place only to Cassie Scallon's CR at Bandera.
9. Nicole Kalogeropoulus
Final 2015 GUR: 7
Current 2016 GUR: 18
2015 WS finish: 6
She DNF'd at Rocky Raccoon in February, but has won a couple of smaller races since then, and I'm a bit afraid to bet against her after what she did at UTMB last year.
10. Bethany Patterson
Final 2015 GUR: 18
Current 2016 GUR: 3
2015 WS finish: NA
Another incredibly consistent performer and a very prolific racer. Most of her success is on more technical tracks, though, and I'm not quite sure of her flat-speed credentials.
Hedging my bets
11. Anna Mae Flynn
12. Amanda Basham
13. Meghan Arbogast
14. Maggie Guterl
15. Amy Rusiecki
Dudes
Unlike the women, none of last year's top four are back in 2016. If anything, though, the men's race is a little tougher to handicap, because I find the top Europeans to be a bit of a confounding variable. Partly because I don't follow the Euro circuit nearly as closely as the US events, but also, I'm never sure how their success translates on this side of the pond. In the nine races of the PJE (Post-Jurek Era), only one foreigner (the great Killian Jornet) has won States, and it even took him two tries to do it. Last year's European contingent was as strong as any in recent memory, and scored an impressive 4-5-6 finish, but can one of them break through for the win? Regardless, despite the Euros, and despite the presence of eleven of both the 2015 and 2016 GUR top 50 in the starting field, I feel like this is a three-man race for the win, between Jim Walmsley, Sage Canaday, and David Laney.
1. Sage Canaday
Final 2015 GUR: 45
Current 2016 GUR: 29
2015 WS finish: NA
After an unbelievable 2014, Sage had a bit of a frustrating 2015, as evidenced by his disappointing (for him) 15th at Comrades and his injury-induced DNF at UTMB. But he still managed a dominant win at Speedgoat and put up four sub-2:21 marathons in a 12-month stretch, and since barely missing the OTQ and recommitting to the trails, he looks to be back to his old self. I don't want to bet against Jim or Dave, but I'll back my fellow Cornell XC/track alum. Go Big Red!
2. Jim Walmsley
Final 2015 GUR: 18
Current 2016 GUR: 1
2015 WS finish: NA
This feels a little bit crazy. No one beats Jim Walmsley these days. (I mean, like no one. He hasn't lost in over a year.) It's his first crack at 100 miles, but States has seen rookies have plenty of success in the past. (Look at Krar in 2013, or Magda last year.) Can leg speed and overwhelming talent trump experience?
3. David Laney
Final 2015 GUR: 6
Current 2016 GUR: NA
2015 WS finish: 8
Ranking last year's UROY as the third choice makes me feel sick to my stomach. Let's just move on.
4. Thomas Lorblanchet
Final 2015 GUR: NA
Current 2016 GUR: NA
2015 WS finish: 5
He's the top returning finisher from last year and may have more of the profile of the Europeans who are successful at States (which is to say, "fast," rather than strictly mountain-goat).
5. Didrik Hermansen
Final 2015 GUR: NA
Current 2016 GUR: NA
2015 WS finish: NA
I know very little about him, but he won TGC this year, so what the hell.
6. Ian Sharman
Final 2015 GUR: 7
Current 2016 GUR: 4
2015 WS finish: 7
Ian will finish sixth because I feel like Ian always finishes sixth.
7. Francois D'haene
Final 2015 GUR: NA
Current 2016 GUR: NA
2015 WS finish: 14
I always think of him as more of a mountain runner, but he's won huge 100-milers all over the world and unless something goes wrong I can't see him outside the top 10.
8. Bob Shebest
Final 2015 GUR: 12
Current 2016 GUR: 142
2015 WS finish: NA
My dark horse pick, I can't understand why this guy doesn't get more attention.
9. Jeff Browning
Final 2015 GUR: 69
Current 2016 GUR: 46
2015 WS finish: NA
I just love his form recently. Third at UTMF in September and first at HURT in January.
10. Jesse Haynes
Final 2015 GUR: 82
Current 2016 GUR: 13
2015 WS finish: DNF
He's always hanging around the back half of the top 10, and has been running well in early 2016.
Hedging my bets
11. Paul Giblin
12. Andrew Tuckey
13. Christopher Denucci
14. Paul Terranova
15. Andrew Miller
Pre-Western States GUR Top 50 Update (as of 6/18)
Men
|
State
|
Points
|
Women
|
State
|
Points
| |
1
|
Jim Walmsley
|
AZ
|
159
|
YiOu Wang
|
CA
|
104
|
2
|
Paul Terranova
|
TZ
|
85
|
Kaci Lickteig
|
NE
|
61.9
|
3
|
Brian Rusiecki
|
MA
|
75.6
|
Bethany Patterson
|
VA
|
56.8
|
4
|
Ian Sharman
|
CA
|
72.5
|
Sabrina Little
|
TX
|
54.5
|
5
|
Christopher Dennucci
|
CA
|
67.675
|
Anna Mae Flynn
|
CA
|
54.3
|
6
|
Dylan Bowman
|
CA
|
61.85
|
Corinne Malcolm
|
WA
|
53.35
|
7
|
Matt Flaherty
|
IN
|
61.6
|
Cassie Scallon
|
CO
|
50.3
|
8
|
Mario Mendoza
|
OR
|
59.9
|
Kathleen Cusick
|
FL
|
50
|
9
|
Jared Burdick
|
NY
|
58.5
|
Jodee Adams-Moore
|
WA
|
40.75
|
10
|
Tim Frericks
|
AZ
|
55
|
Ellie Greenwood
|
Can
|
40
|
11
|
Tyler Sigl
|
WI
|
50.5
|
Keely Henninger
|
MA
|
38
|
12
|
David Roche
|
CA
|
47.5
|
Alicia Shay
|
AZ
|
37.75
|
13
|
Jesse Haynes
|
CA
|
46.7
|
Bev Anderson-Abbs
|
CA
|
37.7
|
14
|
Andrew Miller
|
OR
|
45
|
Sarah Bard
|
WA
|
36.8
|
15
|
Chris Mocko
|
CA
|
41.625
|
Laura Kline
|
NY
|
36
|
16
|
Stephen Wassather
|
CA
|
41.5
|
Amy Rusiecki
|
MA
|
35.325
|
17
|
Jorge Pacheco
|
CA
|
40.2
|
Caroline Boller
|
CA
|
35
|
18
|
Michael Daigeaun
|
PA
|
40
|
Nicole Kalogeropoulos
|
TX
|
35
|
19
|
Masazumi Fujioka
|
CA
|
39
|
Emily Peterson
|
CA
|
31
|
20
|
Ed Ettinghausen
|
CA
|
38.4
|
Erika Lindland
|
CA
|
30.8
|
21
|
Dominick Layfield
|
UT
|
38.2
|
Rachel Ragona
|
CA
|
30.6
|
22
|
Ryan Bak
|
OR
|
37.5
|
Devon Yanko
|
CA
|
30
|
23
|
Chris Vargo
|
AZ
|
37.375
|
Megan Roche
|
CA
|
30
|
24
|
Zach Miller
|
CO
|
35
|
Julie Koepke
|
TX
|
29.275
|
25
|
Daniel Metzger
|
CA
|
34.5
|
Denise Bourassa
|
OR
|
28.8
|
26
|
Mark Hammond
|
UT
|
33.8
|
Heather Hoechst
|
PA
|
28.75
|
27
|
Paddy O’Leary
|
CA
|
33.75
|
Sarah Schubert
|
VA
|
28.6
|
28
|
Chikara Omine
|
CA
|
33.6
|
Aliza Lapierre
|
VT
|
27.5
|
29
|
Sage Canaday
|
CO
|
33.5
|
Traci Falbo
|
IN
|
26.6
|
30
|
Chase Nowak
|
MN
|
30
|
Kelly Wolf
|
AZ
|
26.2
|
31
|
Charlie Ware
|
AZ
|
28.5
|
Amy Sproston
|
OR
|
25.5
|
32
|
Jorge Maravilla
|
CA
|
28.5
|
Magdalena Boulet
|
CA
|
25.5
|
33
|
Jason Lantz
|
PA
|
27.4
|
Amy Clark
|
TX
|
25.25
|
34
|
Caleb Denton
|
TN
|
27
|
Pam Simth
|
OR
|
25
|
35
|
Jared Campbell
|
UT
|
25
|
Camille Herron
|
OK
|
24.7
|
36
|
Nickademus Hollon
|
CA
|
24.4
|
Janessa Taylor
|
OR
|
24.5
|
37
|
Karl Meltzer
|
UT
|
24.3
|
Anne-Marie Maddon
|
Can
|
24
|
38
|
Aaron Saft
|
NC
|
24.125
|
Kaytlyn Gerbin
|
WA
|
23.875
|
39
|
Steve Barber
|
TN
|
24
|
Katrin Silva
|
NM
|
23.25
|
40
|
Jeremy Wolf
|
WA
|
23.675
|
Courtney Dauwalter
|
CO
|
23
|
41
|
Olaf Wasternack
|
TN
|
23
|
Sheryl Wheeler
|
NY
|
22.8
|
42
|
Patrick Caron
|
MA
|
23
|
Amanda Basham
|
OR
|
22.5
|
43
|
Nicholas DiPirro
|
VA
|
22.5
|
Brittany Goicoechea
|
ID
|
22.5
|
44
|
Jean Pommier
|
CA
|
22.1
|
Keila Merino
|
NY
|
22.125
|
45
|
Mario Martinez
|
CA
|
21.6
|
Liz Bauer
|
SC
|
22
|
46
|
Jeff Browning
|
OR
|
21.5
|
Bree Lambert
|
CA
|
21.6
|
47
|
C Fred Joslyn
|
NY
|
21.325
|
Lee Conner
|
OH
|
21.6
|
48
|
Cody Reed
|
21
|
Shawn Chapler
|
IN
|
21.55
| |
49
|
David Goggins
|
TN
|
21
|
Natalie Larson
|
CA
|
21.5
|
50
|
Brett Hornig
|
OR
|
20.65
|
Darcy Piceu
|
CO
|
21.375
|
